Dehydrated Tomato Market, Trend and Analysis

China is the country with the largest tomato cultivation area and the largest total output in the world with a perennial output of more than 50 million tons and a trend of growth.

2016, there a slight increase in tomato acreage, production increased steadily; and also a slight tendency to expand consumer demand, consumption structure tends to be more rationalization; in international trade, export steadily, more obvious decline in export processing.
It is expected in August 2017, the open-field tomato planting area or will be reduced, facilities acreage is expected to expand; steady improvement in consumer demand, consumption richer varieties, diversification; processed products exported might would continue to decline further; the price level stable and decreased slightly, fluctuating amplitude might would be less than the same period last year.

China’s main tomato producing areas are mainly in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu and other provinces.
At present, tomato has developed into one of the most important vegetable varieties in China. Since 2016, tomato production was more than 56 million tons, accounting for more than 8% of the total output of vegetables in the country.

2017 Market Expectations & Trends

2017, under the influence of fluctuations in tomato prices up in 2016, is expected to be presented in open acreage reduction trend, while the greenhouse acreage is expected to increase; consumption growth trend will continue,the expectation from consumers on tomato variety, quality and quantity would be the more diversified; exports of processed products or will continue to decline further; the overall price level of tomatoes showed a steady decline slightly, the volatility might would slow down.

(a) The Planted Area Will Be Reduced Or Planted Area Is Expected To Expand

The area under cultivation is often determined by the price of the last product cycle.
Affected by the year-on-year price volatility of tomato in 2016, it is estimated that the planted area of tomato in 2017 will show a downward trend while the area under greenhouses is expected to increase. Overall, the annual tomato planting area of about 16.27 million mu, up 1.3% decrease; absence of major natural disasters, yields are expected to recover to 3500 kg per mu, total output reached 56.95 million tons, up by 0.2%.
The main reason is that the phenomenon of “sell hard” appeared in May, June, 2016 in Henan, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Jilin and other places, which directly affected the farmers’ production enthusiasm in the second year. At the same time, the comparative advantage of tomato planting was reduced and the production The cost increase is more obvious. For example, if the cost of labor increases by 20.0%, farmers may be inclined to plant other cash crops such as strawberries.

(b) Steady Improvement In Consumer Demand and Diversification Of Varieties

In recent years, China’s consumption of fresh tomatoes and its products has been steadily increasing. The growth of consumption in 2017 is expected to continue.
The total consumption of tomatoes will reach 42.08 million tons, up 0.8% over the same period of last year. With the improvement of people’s living standards, the expectation of varieties, quality and quantity of tomatoes is more diversified, boosting the growth of total demand of tomatoes. Fruit tomatoes become a tight commodity, and are increasingly welcomed by consumers.
The processed tomato and fresh tomato strains are further subdivided and the distinction is more obvious. Cherry tomatoes account for about 30.0% -40.0% of the total tomato market volume, and their proportion will increase.

(c) The Price Level Stabilized Slightly But Slightly Lower Than The Same Period Of Last Year

In 2017, the overall price level of tomatoes showed a steady downward trend.
The fluctuation range may slow down at a rate of about 3.0 yuan per kg, down 3.5% from the previous year.
In stages, from January to March, due to the impact of the historical high prices of tomato in the same period of last year, the planting area will increase greatly and the output will rise correspondingly, and the market price of tomato will be lower than the same period of last year.
In April, In the north-east, a large number of open-market tomatoes went public and their prices dropped rapidly.
From May to August, they continued to run at low levels, but year-on-year higher than the same period of previous year. Prices started to pick up after September. If there was no out-of- Last year will be reduced.

2017 Dehydrated Tomato Market Forecasting

The production and quantity of fresh tomatoes are stable every year, and as dehydrated vegetable there will be enough raw material for drying and processing.
The impact of the 2016 rainy season, which led to a drastic drop in the number of dehydrated tomatoes’ semi-finished and finished products, will affect the relative increase in tomato production in the producing areas in the new crop season 2017, and meantime there will strengthen the prevention of external factors such as the weather in 2017.
Therefore, we expect that the output of new dehydrated tomato will be relatively stable in 2017, as long as there is no serious weather impact, the price will be stable and lower than in 2016.